Hoosier Wire

Gameday picture · Week 11 · Big Ten

USC at IU

No. 15 11/14 · TBD · TBD · Memorial Stadium

Desk line: Indiana −2.5, total 58.5. Track meet. The bye has to put legs under the front seven or Riley will hang 30 at Memorial Stadium.

Spread

IU -2.5

Desk line

Total

58.5

Win

54%

USC

desk projection

Hoosiers

Desk implied 31–28 · IU −135 / USC +115

Kick weather

48°F

November home night · track meet · lo 34°F

Bloomington · Memorial Stadium

25% precip

Window

TBD

Home vs No. 15 USC after the bye. Kick TBD.

Bye week, then Riley tempo at Memorial Stadium.

Unit matchups

Quarterback

IU 8 · 8 USC

Hoover vs a Riley creator. Two gunslingers. Tempo is USC's edge.

Offensive line

IU 7 · 7 USC

Riley will test the edges with pace. Conditioning after the bye is the tell.

Receivers

IU 8 · 8 USC

Marsh vs a Riley skill room built to run past you.

Front seven

IU 8 · 7 USC

You cannot sub late. USC's whole identity is the no-huddle.

Secondary

IU 7 · 8 USC

Don't get stacked. They will throw it over the top if you load.

Special teams

IU 7 · 7 USC

Field position in a 58-point total.

Availability

Trevor Gibbs TE
Targeted back after the opener. Schott/Barker/Thiry have the two-deep either way.
probable
Josh Hoover QB
Full go. TCU transfer, first IU start. The season walks through him.
available
Turbo Richard RB
Full go. BC transfer, the featured back and KR.
available
Nick Marsh WR
Full go. Michigan State transfer is the X.
available
Carter Smith OT
Full go. Left tackle and the public voice of the line.
available

What the tape says

Conditioning. The bye is for legs, not scheme.
Score in the 20s early. You will not win 17–14 against Riley.
Third-down get-off. Obiazor has to wreck a drive.
Marsh as the answer, not the only answer. Find a second target.

History

No. 15 USC after the open date. Lincoln Riley's tempo has defined this series since they joined the Big Ten.
Home night against a ranked tempo team is the loudest Memorial Stadium can get after Ohio State.
Classifier collision: this is USC the Trojans on the IU slate — never Southern California basketball, never South Carolina.

Roster advantage · vs USC

Two-deep is a coin-flip

Starter-vs-starter grades for Lincoln Riley's USC (No. 15).

Net grade

-1

1 IU · 5 even · 2 USC

Even

Josh Hoover

IU 8

USC starter

8 USC

Even on talent. USC's tempo is the real opponent.

Even

Turbo Richard

IU 7

USC committee

7 USC

Don't lose the down-to-down. Explosives will come.

Even

Nick Marsh

IU 8

USC receivers

8 USC

Marsh can answer. The rest of the room has to keep up.

Even

Carter Smith

IU 7

USC front

7 USC

Pace wears the interior. Bye week has to show.

EDGE

IU edge

Chiddi Obiazor

IU 8

USC tackles

7 USC

Get home on third-and-long or this becomes 40.

Even

Tyrique Tucker

IU 7

USC interior

7 USC

Two-gap and get off the field. No 10-play TD drives.

USC edge

Rolijah Hardy

IU 7

USC skill

8 USC

Alley fits vs tempo. This is the hardest LB game on the slate.

USC edge

Amare Ferrell

IU 7

USC receivers

8 USC

No busts. One missed assignment is six.